Within the framework of what is expected to be an official visit by President Emmanuel Macron to Greece tomorrow, with an agenda mainly focused on defense-related issues, local analysts have begun to speculate that France will seek to finalize an exchange of 43 Mirage 2000 fighters from the Hellenic Air Force for an equivalent number of Rafale fighters at a reduced price. In this way, Paris could move forward with a subsequent transfer of those aircraft to Ukraine in order to strengthen its air combat capabilities, as it is a platform with which the country’s pilots are already familiar.
It should be recalled at this point that the possibility of acquiring the Greek Mirage 2000 fighters, for their later transfer to Ukraine, has been under consideration by France for months as part of its strategies to continue supporting the country’s defense against the Russian invasion. As previously reported in October, these efforts take place within a broader restructuring process underway in the Hellenic Air Force, for which it is not a minor detail that the aircraft sought by France would cease to receive support next year.
In this regard, it is worth bringing up that Greece has already launched various programs aimed at updating its fighter fleet, both through the acquisition of new platforms and the modernization of existing ones. In the specific case of the Rafale, it should be noted that the delivery of 24 aircraft of the F3R variant was completed in January 2025, nearly four years after transfers from France began. Initially, the Hellenic Air Force had purchased a total of 18 units, including aircraft previously operated by the French Air and Space Force, which were later complemented by six additional fighters acquired through options included in the contracts.
On the other hand, the country has also made a significant leap in capability with the acquisition of a batch of 20 F-35A stealth fighters from the United States, for which it invested approximately $8.6 billion. Confirmed in July 2024, the deal made the Hellenic Air Force the nineteenth country to integrate Lockheed Martin’s aircraft into its fleet, with a delivery schedule expected to begin in 2028. Just as the Rafales are taking over from the aforementioned Mirage 2000s, the U.S.-built aircraft are expected to replace the legendary F-4 Phantom II models.
Regarding fighter modernization, it should also be recalled that Greece is carrying out an ambitious program covering more than one hundred F-16 fighters, of which the country operates a wide range of variants and which are being upgraded to the most advanced Viper standard. Initially, Athens opted to include a total of 83 aircraft configured to the Block 50+ and Block 52+ standards, acquired during the 2000s, of which around 50 units have already been upgraded. More recently, the Hellenic Air Force also obtained authorization to proceed with the modernization of its 38 F-16 Block 50s, which would allow it to consolidate itself as one of the leading operators of the platform worldwide.
Greek assistance to Ukraine and efforts to expand it
Beyond these developments, it should be mentioned that the potential exchange of Mirage 2000-5 fighters with France, for their subsequent transfer to Ukraine, is also part of broader efforts by Kyiv’s partners seeking greater Greek participation in military aid packages since the outbreak of the war. To date, the resources provided by the country have been limited to older platforms from its inventories, with an illustrative example being the M-110 howitzers introduced in the 1960s.
Along these lines, there have also been various attempts by the United States to encourage Greece to allocate resources to the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), through which equipment is acquired and then transferred to Kyiv. A large number of countries from NATO’s eastern flank participate in this initiative, particularly those that view Russian advances as a direct threat to their own security, including the Scandinavian nations that have more recently joined the alliance.
An official visit with multiple dimensions
Broadening the scope of the aforementioned official visit by the French president to Greece, it should be noted that the defense agenda will not only address the Mirage 2000 fighter issue, but also other areas of cooperation between the two countries. These include projects currently underway within the Hellenic Navy to strengthen its combat capabilities, as well as the modernization of land forces platforms and the conduct of military exercises.
Among the points that could be addressed, one that stands out is the recent offer by Naval Group for the Hellenic Navy to acquire new Blacksword Barracuda submarines in the future. If realized, this would allow the replacement of its Type 209 fleet, which has already accumulated several decades of service. Additionally, the arrival of new French submarines would represent a qualitative leap in complementing the existing Type 214 models that the institution also seeks to modernize, a fleet composed of HS Papanikolis, HS Pipinos, HS Matrozos, and HS Katsonis.
Remaining in the naval domain, it is also worth recalling that France has sought to promote the construction of three additional FDI frigates in Greece to equip the Hellenic Navy. As reported at the time, the proposal gained momentum during the visit of the French Minister of the Armed Forces, Catherine Vautrin, to the Salamis shipyards in Greece. This is one of the country’s main naval construction hubs, where she stated that advancing this program would help consolidate strategic industrial capabilities in the long term.
On the land forces side, Greek local media have indicated that Macron’s visit could be an opportunity to announce an expansion of the military exercise agenda, especially considering that a group of Greek Army tanks is currently deployed in France to participate in the ORION-26 exercise. Other points include potential offers to modernize Greek artillery capabilities, as well as to advance in the production of Philotectes armored vehicles.
Finally, Greek publications suggest that cooperation in the field of nuclear energy could also be addressed, with indications of a memorandum enabling work on small modular reactors. More details are expected in the near future regarding the issues ultimately discussed during the visit.
*Images used for illustrative purposes
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