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Sticker Shock:Estimating the Real Cost of Modern Fighter
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<blockquote data-quote="SuperEtendard" data-source="post: 165252" data-attributes="member: 128"><p>PARTE 5</p><p></p><p>II. BENCHMARK COMPARISONS</p><p>Having arrived at credible cost estimates, we then looked at how fighter aircraft costs compare</p><p>with other widely used economic benchmarks.</p><p>The first approach is to compare aircraft on a “cost per kilogram” basis, a rule of thumb approach</p><p>that is often used in the industry as a rough guide to relative aircraft costs. We then compared</p><p>these costs with those of gold and caviar, which are widely traded commodities.</p><p>Table 2: Worth their weight in gold?</p><p>(Aircraft ranked by cost per kilo (program unit cost divided by empty weight.)</p><p>Aircraft Weight (kg) Cost ($ million) Cost per kg ($)</p><p>F-15E 20,400 108.2 5,303 (unit procur. cost) caviar 6,000 Paris, May 2006</p><p>F-18E 13,400 95.3 7,111</p><p>JSF 12,000 112.5 9,375</p><p>Gripen 5,700 76.07 13,345</p><p>Rafale C 9,400 135.8 14,446</p><p>Typhoon 9,750 143.8 14,748</p><p>gold 18,700 Paris, May 2006</p><p>F-22 14,400 338.8 23,472</p><p>As shown above in Table 2, combat aircraft costs vary by a factor of 4:1 on a cost per kilogram</p><p>basis, slightly less than the 5:1 range for unit costs.</p><p>The comparison with luxury goods shows that, on a kilo-per-kilo basis, the F-22A is the only one of</p><p>the seven aircraft examined in this study to cost more than its weight in gold, while five of the six</p><p>others cost more than their weight in caviar.</p><p>7. Different costs of materials and labor in various countries can distort direct cost comparisons.</p><p>To even out the playing field, we converted Unit Procurement Costs from national currencies</p><p>into US dollars at Purchasing Power Parity. We used the PPP exchange rates provided by The</p><p>Economist’s Big Mac Index” (January 12, 2006) <a href="http://www.economist.com/markets/bigmac/" target="_blank">http://www.economist.com/markets/bigmac/</a></p><p>Table 3: Worth their weight in hamburgers?</p><p>(Aircraft ranked by unit procurement costs at purchasing power parity)</p><p>Aircraft Cost in $ (actual rate) Local Big Mac price Weighted cost in $</p><p>Rafale C $ 62.1 $ 3.51 $ 55.7 million</p><p>Rafale M $ 67.9 $ 3.51 $ 60.9 million</p><p>F-18E $ 78.4 $ 3.15 $ 78.4 million</p><p>Gripen $ 68.9 $ 4.28 $ 84.0 million</p><p>F-15 E $ 108.2 $ 3.15 $ 108.2 million</p><p>Typhoon (UK) $ 118.6 $ 3.32 $ 112.5 million</p><p>JSF $ 115 $ 3.15 $ 115.0 million</p><p>F-22A $ 177.6 $ 3.15 $ 177.6 million</p><p>The result is shown in table 3 (above): while prices of non-US aircraft increase when converted into</p><p>dollars at PPP, the overall ranking is not substantially changed despite generally higher labor and</p><p>material costs in Europe.</p><p>8. A final comparison compensates for differences in national wealth, to see how much of a</p><p>nation’s economic resources are consumed by the acquisition of a modern fighter aircraft. To arrive</p><p>at the ranking below, we divided the Unit Procurement Cost of each fighter by the national procapita</p><p>gross domestic product in its home country, using data for 2005 provided in the CIA’s World</p><p>Factbook.</p><p>Table 4: Cost ranking as a bite of GDP</p><p>(Unit procurement costs divided by national GDP per head; 2005 estimated GDP at purchasing power parity,</p><p>CIA World Factbook)</p><p>Aircraft Aircraft Unit Production Price GDP per head (estimated 2005)Cost as multiple of GDP per head</p><p>Notes</p><p>F-18 E $ 78,400,000 $ 42,000 1,866 times GDP/head</p><p>Rafale C $ 62,100,000 $ 30,000 2,070</p><p>Gripen $ 68,900,000 $ 29,800 2,312</p><p>F-15 E $ 108,200,000 $ 42,000 2,570 estimate</p><p>JSF $ 115,000,000 $ 42,000 2,738 (UK GDP)</p><p>Typhoon $ 118,600,000 $ 30,900 3,640</p><p>F-22 $ 177,000,000 $ 42,000 4,228</p><p>Table 4 (above) compares costs after correcting them for national economic conditions. This</p><p>ranking shows that, in terms of cost to the national economy, the F-18E is most affordable while</p><p>the F-22, which costs four times as much in terms of GDP per head, is the least affordable.</p><p>Interestingly, the ranking of non-US aircraft does not change significantly in this comparison.</p><p>It is worth noting that the price range, excluding the F-22, is remarkably homogenous, with a ratio</p><p>of 1:2 (from 1.8 to 3.6 times GDP/head), and remains practically invariable whatever benchmark is</p><p>used.</p><p>This tentatively points to a correlation between economic conditions in the customer country and</p><p>the cost of the aircraft it buys.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="SuperEtendard, post: 165252, member: 128"] PARTE 5 II. BENCHMARK COMPARISONS Having arrived at credible cost estimates, we then looked at how fighter aircraft costs compare with other widely used economic benchmarks. The first approach is to compare aircraft on a “cost per kilogram” basis, a rule of thumb approach that is often used in the industry as a rough guide to relative aircraft costs. We then compared these costs with those of gold and caviar, which are widely traded commodities. Table 2: Worth their weight in gold? (Aircraft ranked by cost per kilo (program unit cost divided by empty weight.) Aircraft Weight (kg) Cost ($ million) Cost per kg ($) F-15E 20,400 108.2 5,303 (unit procur. cost) caviar 6,000 Paris, May 2006 F-18E 13,400 95.3 7,111 JSF 12,000 112.5 9,375 Gripen 5,700 76.07 13,345 Rafale C 9,400 135.8 14,446 Typhoon 9,750 143.8 14,748 gold 18,700 Paris, May 2006 F-22 14,400 338.8 23,472 As shown above in Table 2, combat aircraft costs vary by a factor of 4:1 on a cost per kilogram basis, slightly less than the 5:1 range for unit costs. The comparison with luxury goods shows that, on a kilo-per-kilo basis, the F-22A is the only one of the seven aircraft examined in this study to cost more than its weight in gold, while five of the six others cost more than their weight in caviar. 7. Different costs of materials and labor in various countries can distort direct cost comparisons. To even out the playing field, we converted Unit Procurement Costs from national currencies into US dollars at Purchasing Power Parity. We used the PPP exchange rates provided by The Economist’s Big Mac Index” (January 12, 2006) [url]http://www.economist.com/markets/bigmac/[/url] Table 3: Worth their weight in hamburgers? (Aircraft ranked by unit procurement costs at purchasing power parity) Aircraft Cost in $ (actual rate) Local Big Mac price Weighted cost in $ Rafale C $ 62.1 $ 3.51 $ 55.7 million Rafale M $ 67.9 $ 3.51 $ 60.9 million F-18E $ 78.4 $ 3.15 $ 78.4 million Gripen $ 68.9 $ 4.28 $ 84.0 million F-15 E $ 108.2 $ 3.15 $ 108.2 million Typhoon (UK) $ 118.6 $ 3.32 $ 112.5 million JSF $ 115 $ 3.15 $ 115.0 million F-22A $ 177.6 $ 3.15 $ 177.6 million The result is shown in table 3 (above): while prices of non-US aircraft increase when converted into dollars at PPP, the overall ranking is not substantially changed despite generally higher labor and material costs in Europe. 8. A final comparison compensates for differences in national wealth, to see how much of a nation’s economic resources are consumed by the acquisition of a modern fighter aircraft. To arrive at the ranking below, we divided the Unit Procurement Cost of each fighter by the national procapita gross domestic product in its home country, using data for 2005 provided in the CIA’s World Factbook. Table 4: Cost ranking as a bite of GDP (Unit procurement costs divided by national GDP per head; 2005 estimated GDP at purchasing power parity, CIA World Factbook) Aircraft Aircraft Unit Production Price GDP per head (estimated 2005)Cost as multiple of GDP per head Notes F-18 E $ 78,400,000 $ 42,000 1,866 times GDP/head Rafale C $ 62,100,000 $ 30,000 2,070 Gripen $ 68,900,000 $ 29,800 2,312 F-15 E $ 108,200,000 $ 42,000 2,570 estimate JSF $ 115,000,000 $ 42,000 2,738 (UK GDP) Typhoon $ 118,600,000 $ 30,900 3,640 F-22 $ 177,000,000 $ 42,000 4,228 Table 4 (above) compares costs after correcting them for national economic conditions. This ranking shows that, in terms of cost to the national economy, the F-18E is most affordable while the F-22, which costs four times as much in terms of GDP per head, is the least affordable. Interestingly, the ranking of non-US aircraft does not change significantly in this comparison. It is worth noting that the price range, excluding the F-22, is remarkably homogenous, with a ratio of 1:2 (from 1.8 to 3.6 times GDP/head), and remains practically invariable whatever benchmark is used. This tentatively points to a correlation between economic conditions in the customer country and the cost of the aircraft it buys. [/QUOTE]
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Sticker Shock:Estimating the Real Cost of Modern Fighter
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