The events recorded over the past weekend marked a turning point in the development of Operation Epic Fury carried out by the U.S. From the shootdown of an F-15E Strike Eagle fighter-bomber over Iranian territory, followed by a complex and high-risk combat search and rescue (CSAR) operation, the intensity — and the risks — that the campaign against Iran has reached were laid bare.
According to various reports, for more than 24 hours, the F-15’s Weapon Systems Officer (WSO) managed to evade capture in hostile territory before finally being rescued by U.S. Special Forces in an operation involving multiple aerial assets and even resulting in the deliberate destruction of friendly aircraft to prevent their capture.
From these events, and considering the accumulated reports since the beginning of operations on February 28, a broader question begins to take shape: what losses have the U.S. Armed Forces suffered so far in the course of this campaign against Iran?
Between enemy fire and self-inflicted incidents
Among the most significant losses are those involving combat aircraft. According to the available reports, the United States may have lost four U.S. Air Force (USAF) F-15E Strike Eagle fighter-bombers, one of them shot down over Iranian territory, while the others were reportedly downed in friendly fire incidents during operations over Kuwait, a factor that once again highlights the risks inherent in highly complex scenarios. This latter incident, recorded in the opening days of the campaign, had already foreshadowed the difficulties of operating in airspace saturated with aircraft, drones, and missiles.
This is compounded by the loss of an A-10 Thunderbolt II, shot down while providing close air support during a combat search and rescue operation last Friday, April 3, near the Strait of Hormuz, almost at the same time as one of the F-15Es downed in Iran.
At the same time, it was also reported that an F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter was damaged after being hit by Iranian anti-aircraft fire during a combat mission over Iran, subsequently managing to make an emergency landing.
Blows to key support capabilities
Beyond combat assets, one of the aspects that could have the greatest impact on the development of the campaign is the damage inflicted on support aircraft. Among them, the destruction of an E-3 Sentry airborne warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft of the U.S. Air Force at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 27 represents a particularly sensitive loss, given the central role these platforms play in the surveillance, control, and coordination of air operations.
Along the same lines, official and open-source reports indicated that at least two KC-135R tanker aircraft were also lost, along with damage to six other aircraft at the same time. One of the aforementioned aircraft was affected during an aerial refueling mission, a critical element for sustaining long-range air operations.
Unmanned systems
The intensive use of unmanned systems also appears to have come at a considerable cost. Since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, at least 17 MQ-9 Reaper drones are estimated to have been shot down or to have crashed in the theater of operations, a trend that had already become evident in the first weeks of the conflict, when preliminary reports indicated the loss of more than a dozen of these platforms. While this type of system is usually employed to reduce the exposure of manned assets, its high loss rate reflects an operational environment in which air defenses and electronic threats continue to pose a significant challenge.
Rescue operations under fire and a demonstration of experience
The CSAR missions carried out, such as the one recently conducted after the downing of the F-15E, have also demonstrated a high level of risk. During that operation, aircraft such as the MC-130J Commando II and the MH/AH-6M Little Bird helicopter, also known as “Killer Eggs,” were reportedly destroyed while supporting these U.S. Special Forces actions. Regarding the latter, various media outlets indicated the participation of highly specialized units such as the Navy’s SEAL Team 6 and the U.S. Army’s DELTA.
To this must be added damage suffered by one HH-60M helicopter in Iraq, allegedly as a result of an FPV drone attack, and by two HH-60Ws during operations over Iranian territory.
Lastly, reports have also emerged of the destruction of two CH-47F Chinook heavy transport helicopters, hit in Iranian attacks against Camp Buehring in Kuwait, showing that even rear-area bases have not been exempt from threats.
A complex operational environment
Beyond the figures, the losses recorded in the framework of Operation Epic Fury make it possible to outline some preliminary conclusions. On the one hand, the persistence of conventional threats, such as air defense systems, continues to pose a challenge even for advanced platforms. On the other hand, the growing incidence of drones and asymmetric attacks introduces new variables onto the battlefield. At the same time, incidents such as the reported cases of friendly fire highlight the complexity of operating in saturated environments, where coordination and target identification become critically important.
However, beyond the impact of these losses, a broader question is beginning to emerge regarding the development of the campaign. In a context where a rapidly resolved operation with limited Iranian capacity to respond had initially been expected, the volume and nature of the recorded losses — added to incidents that have affected even strategic assets, such as the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, which had temporarily been taken out of operations after onboard fires — invite the question of how far this attrition could end up affecting the pace or scope of U.S. operations.
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