With the release of a new satellite image of the so-called Base 1 dated February 16, open-source intelligence (OSINT) sources have noted that the Iranian Navy appears to have completed the modernization of one of its Russian-origin Kilo-class submarines, which had been in dry dock for months and has now been observed at its pier. This development comes amid heightened tensions between the theocratic regime and the United States, with the latter carrying out a significant military buildup in the Middle East and President Trump pressing for a new “meaningful” nuclear agreement that would definitively steer Iran away from developing such weapons, amid the latent possibility of military action should negotiations collapse.
Expanding on relevant details, analysts point out that the Iranian Kilo-class submarine (known in Iran as the Tareq class) reportedly began its modernization period last May, at a time when the Iranian Navy also had its other two submarines of the same type out of service in dry dock. These submarines were acquired by Tehran during the 1990s, with Western estimates placing their cost at around $600 million per unit, and were primarily deployed from Bandar Abbas, a location from which they could relatively easily monitor the Strait of Hormuz.
However, these platforms have faced operational limitations due to the geographic conditions of the region in which they operate, effectively restricting them to a reduced environment within the Gulf. In particular, the lack of deeper waters suitable for comfortable submerged operations has been a factor, while high salinity levels and strong currents characteristic of those waters have also impacted their maintenance record, even after refurbishment efforts carried out in 2012.
For this reason, the service moved forward with the incorporation of smaller submarines that could be classified under the SSM category, which can also be observed in the very image used to illustrate the return of one of Iran’s Kilo-class submarines. Specifically, reports indicate that up to 11 Ghadir-class submarines have docked at three separate piers within Base 1 itself, complementing the presence of warships such as the Alvand, Sabalan, and Jamaran.
This is not a minor issue, considering that Iran is believed to operate an SSM fleet exceeding 20 units according to available reports, while simultaneously continuing the development of new models. The concentration of such a number of submarines is relevant for U.S. strategists, as the U.S. Navy now plans to maintain the presence of two Carrier Strike Groups in the Middle East as part of its pressure campaign against the regime during the aforementioned nuclear negotiations. This includes the confirmed deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford to the region after spending more than 200 days in the Caribbean conducting operations against the Venezuelan dictatorship.
Although the disparity in power between the two navies is clear, the presence of Ghadir-class submarines could pose a significant strategic complication in the event of conflict, particularly given the operating environment described above. These are low-displacement submarines (around 125 tons submerged) with small hulls highly suited to littoral conditions, which—thanks to their electric propulsion and factors such as heavy maritime traffic in the area—could prove difficult to detect and neutralize, even though they lack substantial armament and endurance.
Images used for illustrative purposes
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