According to information that has emerged in recent hours, Germany may be increasingly close—and more inclined—to explore a potential participation in the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), the joint initiative led by the UK, Italy, and Japan to develop a sixth-generation fighter. Although the program is still in its development and research phase, the partners are targeting an in-service date of 2035.
During a recent visit by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to Italy, European media reported that Rome had signaled its willingness to examine the possibility of bringing Berlin into the program. GCAP is being led by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Japan, BAE Systems in the United Kingdom, and Leonardo in Italy, and envisions a stealth fighter designed to operate alongside drones and collaborative combat systems, while also being conceived as the future replacement for the Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon.
Germany’s potential move toward GCAP comes amid persistent tensions within the FCAS (Future Combat Air System) program, the project driven by France, Germany, and Spain to develop a sixth-generation air-combat system with an operational horizon around 2040. Launched more than eight years ago, FCAS has faced difficulties over industrial workshare and technological leadership between Dassault Aviation and Airbus Defence and Space.
By December 2025, sources indicated that Dassault was seeking to control 80% of the program—something the French company denies. At the same time, French sources accuse Airbus of trying to expand its decision-making power by leveraging its role as the industrial representative of Germany and Spain. These disputes have delayed the transition to the technological demonstrator phase, creating uncertainty around the program’s timelines.
Against this backdrop, Germany has shown a more pronounced interest in GCAP. Even so, while the rationale behind this shift has not been entirely clear, some interpret it both as a strategic alternative and as leverage in negotiations with France. Along these lines, Europe’s fragmentation into two major sixth-generation programs—FCAS and GCAP—raises questions about the financial and industrial feasibility of sustaining parallel developments in a context of limited resources and growing global competition.
Regardless of the outcome, Germany’s move reflects an ongoing reconfiguration within Europe’s defense-industrial architecture, where traditional partnerships are beginning to strain under the technological and economic scale involved in developing the continent’s future air power. For now, in the coming days, officials from Japan’s foreign affairs and defense ministries are expected to meet in Germany ahead of the Munich Security Conference, where analysts suggest the possibility of German participation in GCAP could be discussed.
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