In an effort to secure a place in the modernization process of the Royal Canadian Air Force and thus fulfill promises of job creation in the country, Saab has doubled down on its bid to supply up to 72 new Gripen E/F fighters and up to six GlobalEye airborne early warning aircraft. According to local reports, the offers submitted by the Swedish company are already being evaluated by committees made up of both defense and economic experts, at a time when Ottawa is experiencing tense relations with the United States, which is backing the candidacy of the F-35.
Expanding on the details, Canadian analysts point out that the government led by Mark Carney appears to be particularly interested in the possibility of diversifying its arms suppliers, while at the same time seeking to strengthen the participation of local industries in the process in order to achieve greater autonomy from its U.S. neighbor. Contributing to this is the fact that Saab has stated it is willing to consider Canada for the establishment of production plants to build aircraft destined for Ukraine, which could generate up to 10,000 jobs, thereby appealing to political decision-makers from an economic standpoint.
An example of the above can be found in recent statements by Canada’s Minister of Industry, Mélanie Joly, who noted: “The government is interested in all major projects that can not only protect Canada’s security and sovereignty, but also create jobs across the country. We certainly cannot control President Trump, but we can control our defense investments, who we award contracts to, and how, ultimately, we can create jobs in Canada. So that’s what we will focus on.”
On the other hand, as mentioned earlier, a potential decision in favor of the Gripen fighter bid would have a clear impact to the detriment of the F-35 fleet that Canada had planned to acquire. In this regard, it should be recalled that the country had already confirmed plans to add up to 88 stealth fighters at a cost of around USD 27 billion, a number that would be drastically reduced should the acquisition of 72 Gripens move forward, thereby opening a wide range of debates regarding the consequences that would follow.
Briefly reviewing some of these debates, Canadian analysts remain uncertain as to whether the Air Force would be able to integrate two new combat fleets simultaneously under current circumstances, while the full details of Saab’s proposal for job creation are still unknown. From a strategic standpoint, there are also serious doubts as to whether Washington would be willing to integrate Swedish-origin fighters into NORAD, an aspect that is key to Canadian defense plans.
Finally, it is also necessary to consider that the issue has reached public opinion, which appears to be divided over the different possible alternatives. According to surveys published on the matter, the largest segment of the population would agree with fielding a fleet composed solely of Gripen fighters, followed by a mixed fleet that also includes the F-35, and lastly an option consisting only of Lockheed Martin aircraft. Marked differences are also evident depending on the political affiliation of those surveyed. This is no minor issue, considering that the Canadian government could end up basing an aircraft purchase primarily on economic and political reasons given current circumstances, rather than on the technical capabilities of the platform or its impact on defense planning.
Images used for illustrative purposes.
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