Through recent statements by Estonia’s Defense Minister, Hanno Pevkur, the Baltic country expressed its readiness to host on its territory the future stealth F-35A fighters of the Royal Air Force (RAF), which the United Kingdom is set to acquire with nuclear strike capability provided by the United States. The declaration follows the September 19 incursion of three Russian Aerospace Forces MiG-31 interceptors, which violated the country’s airspace for twelve minutes.
Days earlier, the European security environment was shaken again after the incident in Poland, when Estonia confirmed its airspace had been violated by Russian military aircraft. The episode involved three MiG-31 interceptors from the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS), which flew for twelve minutes over the island of Vaindloo in the Gulf of Finland, being belatedly intercepted by Swedish and Italian Air Force fighters.
As a result, and echoing the actions taken days earlier by the Polish government, Estonia initiated a series of mechanisms laid out within NATO, notably invoking Article 4 of the Washington Treaty, under which “allies must meet for consultations whenever one of them considers its territorial integrity, political independence, or security at risk.”
In response, alliance members issued a strong warning: in the event of another airspace violation, they are prepared to shoot down Russian aircraft. NATO further described the incident as “part of a broader pattern of increasingly irresponsible Russian behavior,” underlining the rising tensions along Europe’s eastern frontier.
Alongside this decision, and within the framework of Operation Eastern Sentry, the Estonian government has been weighing other options to boost deterrence capabilities projected from its territory. The most complex, raised in Tallinn, is to allow the future deployment of British F-35A fighters with nuclear capability, currently being acquired by the United Kingdom, effectively placing the stealth aircraft “right next to” Russia.
The United Kingdom and the acquisition of nuclear-capable F-35As
The “A” variant of Lockheed Martin’s fighter has recently been certified to carry the U.S.-made B61 nuclear bomb, opening the door for program partners and NATO members such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Netherlands to field this capability, with U.S. authorization, for deterrence missions from European soil. In this sense, the potential deployment of nuclear-armed F-35As in Estonia would represent a qualitative leap in regional deterrence capabilities and send a direct signal to Moscow.
Lastly, beyond the statements made by Estonia’s Minister of Defense, the possibility of hosting British F-35 fighters with nuclear capability, as well as those from other countries, would require authorization from the United States, along with the willingness of the governments involved to deploy such capabilities thousands of kilometers from the Russian border. Furthermore, beyond the rhetoric of NATO leaders at the meetings, it must also be weighed to what extent the Atlantic Alliance is prepared to escalate tensions with Russia in the current context facing Eastern Europe.
*Images used for illustration purposes.
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