During an event hosted by the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General Andrew Gebara revealed that the service expects to begin test flights of its second new B-21 Raider stealth bomber by the end of the year, marking another step in the updates the country is undertaking to its nuclear capabilities. These are significant remarks, considering that Gebara is the current Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration, one of the main advocates of the program.
Quoting some of his statements: “We’ve done the initial R&D work; we’ve started flight test; I think we publicly stated recently that we believe the second aircraft will take to the sky soon. So all these things are great indicators of success and a program that’s on time, on budget, and producing (…) I believe it will happen before the end of the year, but we’re not going to ever give them an artificial date that they have to make if it doesn’t bring the test program along to where they need to be.”
At the same time, Lieutenant General Gebara took the opportunity to hint at the potential future need to expand the number of B-21 Raiders the U.S. Air Force will operate, joining a wider set of service leaders and Pentagon officials who have already been laying the groundwork for such an announcement. It is worth recalling that the USAF currently plans to field a fleet of 100 aircraft. In Gebara’s own words: “I think our nuclear deterrent force and the program we have planned for it are absolutely necessary, but they could prove insufficient in the future (…) The question, then, is: if it could be insufficient, what do we need to do to make sure it is sufficient in the future? That is the work that remains to be done.”
Expanding on that line, initial reporting from U.S. defense outlets has suggested the service could seek to raise the figure to as many as 145 aircraft, which would not only strengthen nuclear deterrence within the triad but also conventional strike capabilities. However, Lieutenant General Gebara did not specify a number for a potential expansion, nor did he indicate whether the Air Force has a timeline for such a decision. He did note, however, that it will still take several years before the B-21 fleet is fully established, providing ample room for future planning.
It should also be recalled that the manufacturer of the stealth bombers, Northrop Grumman, received a second low-rate initial production contract late last year, and only months ago signaled its intent to work with the Air Force to accelerate the program’s pace. This is far from a minor issue, as doing so would also allow the service to proceed more quickly with the retirement of its aging B-1 Lancer and B-2 Spirit bombers still in service.
Finally, it is important to note that the U.S. Air Force also unveiled in June the design of the new AGM-181A LRSO nuclear cruise missile, which will form part of the B-21’s arsenal and is intended to replace the current AGM-86B Air-Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM). For the B-21 program, this is a key consideration, since these weapons are crucial to its deterrence mission alongside the B61-12 and B61-13 nuclear bombs, which the bombers are also capable of deploying.
Images used for illustrative purposes
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