In what is undoubtedly bad news for Ukraine’s air defense network, the U.S. has acknowledged that the newly upgraded Russian ballistic missiles have reduced the effectiveness of the Patriot systems donated by Western allies, consequently undermining the country’s ability to counter heavy air attacks. The news was reported by the U.S. defense outlet The War Zone, which cited the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in addressing the issue, even as Russian bombardments slightly decreased in recent days, coinciding with a meeting in Alaska between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
It should be recalled that Ukraine currently has about seven Patriot systems in total, forming one of the main pillars of its air defense. Of these, three were transferred from the U.S., two from Germany, and one from Romania; the last one was assembled with components provided by Germany and the Netherlands. An additional pair of systems from Berlin may be added, as an agreement was reached with Washington to prioritize German forces on the delivery list for newly manufactured Patriot systems, thereby helping maintain their own capabilities.
With that in mind, the following statement from the DIA is deeply concerning for Kyiv: “The Ukrainian Air Force has struggled to consistently employ Patriot air defense systems to protect against Russian ballistic missiles due to recent Russian tactical improvements, including upgrades that allow their missiles to alter trajectory and maneuver rather than fly along a traditional ballistic path.”
Although the cited report does not specify which upgraded Russian missiles have caused these issues, nor whether certain Patriot batteries have been more affected depending on the interceptor type they employ, it refers to an operational precedent that illustrates the matter. Specifically, it mentions the June 28 attacks, when only one out of seven Russian ballistic missiles was shot down. Similarly, on July 9, out of thirteen missiles launched, only about seven were intercepted.
Looking into possible explanations, according to prior reports by Ukrainian intelligence, the main candidates could be the Russian-made Iskander-M missiles and the North Korean KN-23. In February of this year, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence chief, Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, noted that the latter had significantly improved in accuracy compared to when they first appeared on the battlefield. Reinforcing this argument, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat stated in a May interview that Russia had managed to enhance the effectiveness of its missiles, “making interceptions more difficult, though not impossible.”
Images used for illustrative purposes
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