The ambitious European program to develop a sixth-generation fighter could be facing its greatest challenge: France has reportedly demanded to keep 80% of the project, triggering a crisis with Germany and Spain and casting doubt on the viability of the Future Combat Air System (FCAS).
The FCAS program, considered one of the strategic pillars for Europe’s future defense, is once again at the center of controversy. Citing industry sources and a report by the German specialized outlet Hartpunkt, France has communicated to Germany its intention to take on 80% of the project, sidelining the other two main partners: Germany itself and Spain.
This unexpected shift generates internal tensions within the trinational project, which has already faced multiple disagreements since its launch in 2017 by French President Emmanuel Macron and then German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The initiative, valued at over 100 billion euros, seeks to replace the current French Rafale and German and Spanish Eurofighter Typhoon with a sixth-generation fighter capable of operating alongside networked drones through a “combat cloud.”
Disputes over industrial leadership
FCAS was designed around an equal division of tasks among the three countries, each represented by a national company: Dassault Aviation for France, Airbus Defence & Space for Germany, and Indra for Spain. However, Paris’s request to drastically modify this structure and take on the majority of responsibilities could invalidate the current agreements and break the fragile balance of cooperation reached in 2022 after several months of paralysis.
“France’s demand to keep 80% of the project would nullify the agreed workshare, which would make it very difficult to move toward the next phase of the program,” stated a source linked to the industry. The spokesperson for the German Ministry of Defense avoided directly confronting Paris but made it clear that the intergovernmental agreements remain the binding framework. Meanwhile, the French Ministry of Defense declined to comment.
From Airbus, one of the most directly affected actors, no strong statements were made either, although it was emphasized that “the coming months will be crucial to rapidly begin the development phase.”
Risk of rupture and shift toward GCAP
The political unrest adds to the industrial one. German MP Christoph Schmid, from the Social Democratic Party (SPD), warned that if France does not step back from its demands, the program could collapse: “Germany cannot accept a project where it funds a French aircraft.” In parallel, Airbus convened a union meeting in Manching, a key production site for the Eurofighter, demonstrating the growing concern over the direction of the project.
This crisis revives speculation about a possible merger or replacement of FCAS by the GCAP (Global Combat Air Programme), led by the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan. In fact, in 2023, rumors circulated about a potential German exit from FCAS to join GCAP. That scenario seemed to have been overcome with the signing of an agreement in December 2022 and the reactivation of the program.
The current FCAS timeline foresees a first flight in 2029, development of key phases until 2035, and the start of production in 2040, with entry into service estimated for 2045. However, these deadlines could be suspended if the current disputes are not resolved.
The end of the European dream? Geopolitical Analysis
FCAS was born as a symbol of European strategic unity following Brexit and the migration crisis. Today, almost a decade after its conception, it is at risk of becoming another multinational project truncated by national ambitions, industrial disagreements, and lack of political cohesion. While talks continue, time is pressing. The coming months will be decisive in determining whether FCAS remains the future of European military aviation or if it will be replaced by new alliances and projects.
The world continues to move forward, and with it, various technological developments. Europe has three locally produced aircraft models, all of them fourth-generation: France’s Rafale, Sweden’s Gripen E, and the Eurofighter Typhoon of Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain. And to be even more precise, the three aircraft models are quite similar to each other, not only in their capabilities but also in their physical structure, as they all have a delta wing and canard configuration.
Faced with the hostility demonstrated by Russia toward the West, combined with the fact that Moscow already possesses a fifth-generation aircraft, the Su-57, and is developing another to equip its own Aerospace Forces as well as for export, the Su-75 — of which no new updates have been reported, generating doubts about its viability — European countries find themselves at a crossroads: to develop their own next-generation fighter aircraft or to buy them from allied countries.
They have chosen to do both. As already mentioned, the most solid project is the one involving the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan with GCAP, which would be a sixth-generation stealth fighter. Meanwhile, Germany, France, and Spain would develop FCAS. However, due to political friction between Paris and Berlin, the effective development of this program has yet to materialize, and while the delay remains in the political realm, the continent’s security demands action.
For this reason, several European countries have leaned toward acquiring the F-35A, the fifth-generation fighter from the United States. The very developers of the Eurofighter have signed contracts to purchase these fighter aircraft, and discussions are ongoing for additional batches. This not only highlights the fragility of the aforementioned programs but also of current European aircraft production, especially the Typhoon, which in addition to being increasingly less requested by its developer countries, faces export approval delays from some of them — such as Germany with Turkey — further weakening the local industry.
To delve deeper into this topic, the United Kingdom has expressed interest in acquiring another batch of F-35As with the capability to carry nuclear technology, while Germany has recently completed the construction of a facility in the south of the country dedicated to manufacturing the fuselage of the aforementioned American aircraft. Again, this — in addition to sparking controversy in the United Kingdom for being inconsistent with the discourse of strengthening the national defense industry — diminishes the industrial and technological capacity of European countries, as they increasingly depend on Washington’s technology.
A clear example of this is Denmark, which is currently receiving F-35As from the United States. Sources from the Danish state have indicated that 17 of the 27 aircraft purchased have already been received.
Belgium, to mention another case, announced in 2023 that it was interested in acquiring aircraft from the FCAS project. However, suggesting that the program may not move forward at all, the Belgian government has leaned toward purchasing F-35As from the United States. The same is happening with the Czech Republic, which has extended its lease agreement with Sweden for the Saab Gripen as the F-35As purchased from Washington begin to arrive.
Continuing with the Nordic country, it is not participating in any joint project with another European or global country like the two previously mentioned cases, but it has already begun conceptual studies for the design and later development of the next sixth-generation fighter to equip the Swedish Air Force. However, it is worth noting that Stockholm is also focusing on enhancing its existing Saab Gripen E aircraft by integrating them with “Centaur” artificial intelligence from the company Helsing.
Conclusion
Europe finds itself at a decisive moment for the future of its military aviation. While indigenous projects like FCAS and GCAP face political and technical challenges, strategic urgency and the pressure of the international context have led several countries to opt for immediate solutions, such as purchasing American F-35s. This trend highlights not only the fragility of European next-generation programs but also the loss of competitiveness of its aerospace industry compared to more consolidated and agile players.
*Images used for illustrative purposes.
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