A recent report by the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI²) in the United States has raised new alarms about the current state of Venezuela’s Bolivarian Armed Forces’ air defense system, which is now at a critical point. According to the data collected, more than 60% of the country’s surveillance and detection capabilities are out of service, while the combat aviation fleet is operating at minimal levels, leaving large areas of airspace uncovered against illegal incursions and drug trafficking operations.
The document, authored by analyst Jesús Romero, states that a significant number of JYL-1 and JY-11B radar systems are inactive due to a lack of spare parts, a situation that severely affects early warning capabilities. This is compounded by the limited availability of aircraft: Russian-made Su-30MK2 fighters fly only sporadically, the few remaining F-16s are restricted in use, and AT-27 and K-8W Karakorum trainers play an almost symbolic role. The latter, a Chinese-made model, for instance, operates with less than 30% availability and lacks a functional air-to-air radar.
The report points out that real air defense operability is limited to Caracas and La Orchila Island—areas directly protected by the country’s highest political circle. In these zones, technological resources supplied by Iran have been deployed, such as Mohajer-6 drones and electronic surveillance systems. However, there is no comprehensive effort to rebuild the national defense system. China, for its part, has reduced its involvement to a minimum, limiting its support to sporadic spare parts shipments through civilian intermediaries.
One of the most sensitive issues highlighted is the growing infiltration of criminal networks within military structures. The report links elements of the Cartel of the Suns with intentional manipulation of radar activation schedules, allowing the passage of unidentified aircraft involved in drug trafficking. This is further exacerbated by recent cases of defections and internal fractures, such as the crash of the Citation jet YV3217, which claimed the lives of relatives of high-ranking air defense officials.
The deterioration is also evident in the lack of external projection. The Bolivarian National Armed Force lacks the capability to operate outside the Caracas–Maracay corridor. The Air Force and Navy are practically inactive, and ground forces do not possess the logistical means for strategic deployment. According to the document, even an internally backed uprising supported from abroad could overcome conventional defenses in various regions of the country without major difficulty.
The report concludes that Venezuela’s air defense system has been subordinated to the regime’s interests, left under a political and criminal logic that prevents it from functioning as a sovereign tool. The few instances of foreign aid have only served to reinforce the central government’s security, rather than to ensure effective national coverage. With an overall operational capability rating of 2 out of 10, Venezuela remains vulnerable to external threats, illicit incursions, and potential scenarios of regional collapse.
