Through the public release of a threat assessment report, the United States has reported that Russia is advancing in the development of a new nuclear air-to-air missile to equip the combat aircraft of the Aerospace Forces (VKS). Although no further details are provided, this is the first major development reported in years concerning the air leg of Russia’s nuclear triad, which has been heavily focused on its nuclear-powered submarines and land-based ballistic missile launchers.
For decades, nuclear warhead-equipped air-to-air missiles were part of the arsenal deployed by the Soviet Union, based on a version of the long-range R-33 air-to-air missile (NATO designation “AA-9 Amos”), known as the R-33S. However, since the collapse of the Soviet bloc, Russia’s air-based nuclear arsenal has remained relatively low-profile compared to other delivery systems, such as nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines and various land-based launchers.
In one of the most recent threat assessment reports, officially released by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), the Pentagon analyzed the capabilities of various global actors that could pose a threat to the United States.
Regarding Russia specifically, the document outlines various aspects of the state of the Russian Military Instrument, which has been heavily influenced and affected by the invasion of Ukraine, and the impact this has had on modernization efforts in both conventional and nuclear weapons.
It is in this section that the document clearly states that Russia is developing a new nuclear air-to-air missile to equip its combat aviation. It notes: “Russia is expanding its nuclear forces by adding new capabilities, including nuclear air-to-air missiles and novel nuclear systems. Russia probably maintains a nuclear stockpile of about 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and up to 2,000 non-strategic warheads.”
The mention of a new nuclear missile under development has quickly raised various questions within the expert community, with speculation over whether this is a completely new missile or, rather, based on one of the current long-range air-to-air missiles in service with the VKS—most notably the Vympel R-37.
Designated by NATO as “AA-13 Axehead,” it is a development undertaken by the Vympel design bureau to equip MiG-31 interceptors. However, it has also been seen in service with Su-30SM and Su-35S fighters, as well as the Su-57 stealth combat aircraft.
Currently, according to various reports, thanks to its long range and guidance capabilities, the Russian Aerospace Forces are using the R-37 against targets deep inside Ukraine, launching them from the safety of Russian airspace. It is a well-known threat among Ukrainian pilots, limiting their maneuvering options when operating near the border.
Since its first test launches in the early 1990s as part of the MiG-31’s capability development, the R-37 has evolved into new variants with extended range and improved guidance systems. One such version is designated as the R-37M.
Although detailed information is scarce, as with its predecessor—the Soviet-era R-33—the installation of a nuclear warhead on the R-37M is a possibility reportedly being considered by U.S. military leadership, as reflected in the aforementioned document.
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