As part of an interview published yesterday by the local media outlet Público, Portugal’s Minister of Defense, Nuno Melo, hinted that the country might be reconsidering moving forward with the purchase of U.S. stealth F-35A fighter jets to replace the Portuguese Air Force’s F-16s. According to the argument put forth by the official, this development is mainly due to changes observed in U.S. foreign policy toward Europe, aligning with a broader trend among several European defense ministries that are in the process of acquiring new equipment to modernize their armed forces.
One of the clearest excerpts on the matter states:“The F-16s are at the end of their lifecycle, and we will have to consider their replacement. However, we cannot ignore the geopolitical environment in our decisions. The recent stance of the United States, in the context of NATO and the broader geostrategic landscape, must make us reflect on the best options, as the predictability of our allies is a fundamental advantage. We must believe that, under any circumstances, these allies will stand by our side.”
Portuguese concerns regarding the U.S.
It is worth recalling that since President Donald Trump’s recent return to the White House, there have been various (and often controversial) statements signaling a shift toward a more distant U.S. stance on its previous defense commitments in Europe. Among the most notable of these—partly due to their persistence from his first term—are calls for increased defense spending by European nations, aimed at reducing costs currently burdening the U.S. budget from the Republican leader’s perspective. Additionally, there have been statements regarding his administration’s stance on the war in Ukraine.
For the Portuguese official, this significant shift in U.S. policy could have major implications for a potential future purchase of F-35 stealth fighters, particularly concerning potential limitations on their operational availability. Specifically, Melo suggests that more strained relations with the U.S. could lead to obstacles in acquiring upgrade packages (which require U.S. authorization for foreign sales), various components, and maintenance services essential for the platform’s proper functioning.
It is crucial to emphasize that this does not refer to the widespread myth of a “kill switch” integrated into U.S. aircraft, which some claim would allow Washington to remotely disable their capabilities entirely. Rather, the concern lies in the restrictions imposed by U.S. policy, which prohibits independent testing and modifications of the F-35 platform outside continental U.S. territory—underscoring the dependency described earlier. The sole exception to this rule is Israel and its F-35I Adir jets, the only country granted the ability to operate the platform independently.
The F-35 and Portugal: A love that never was
Given these concerns, it is useful to revisit Portugal’s history with its plans to acquire Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter jets. The aircraft was one of the leading candidates to replace the 28 F-16 MLU fighters currently in service with the Portuguese Air Force, which are divided into two squadrons: the 201st “Falcoes” Squadron and the 301st “Jaguares” Squadron.
The first public indications of interest date back to 2023 when the Chief of Staff of the Portuguese Air Force, General João Cartaxo Alves, stated that Portugal was interested in acquiring the stealth fighter for the aforementioned purpose, following the trend of other European nations. In his own words:“The F-35 appears to be the right aircraft to replace the current F-16 in the future, much like European partner states that have transitioned from the F-16 to the F-35.”
However, at the time, there were no concrete acquisition plans regarding budgets, the number of units, armament, or other relevant details. Portugal’s Military Programming Law allocated around €6 billion for various acquisitions to be completed by 2034, including close air support aircraft and troop transport planes, among other projects. The F-35 was not formally mentioned.
By 2024, the potential acquisition of the platform seemed to be progressing in Lisbon, with new statements from General Cartaxo Alves indicating that the transition process was already underway. Notably, in April 2024, he stated that investment plans exceeding €5.5 billion were in place, estimating that completing the process would take about two decades. As of today, however, those plans appear to have been set aside.
What comes next?
During the interview, Defense Minister Melo was asked about potential alternatives to the F-35 for modernizing the Air Force, particularly regarding a possible agreement with France to acquire Rafale fighter jets.
Rather than confirming or denying this possibility, the minister hinted that several European market options were worth considering, which could also provide an opportunity to involve Portugal’s industry in production. In line with this, Melo stated:“There are several options that must be considered, especially within the context of European production and also taking into account the economic benefits these options may bring to Portugal.”
This statement narrows down the search to three potential alternatives: Dassault’s French Rafale jets, Saab’s Gripen fighters, and the Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft produced by the European Airbus consortium. The Portuguese government’s final decision remains uncertain.
Images used for illustrative purposes
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