After months of debate regarding its continuity, the U.S. Air Force has completed studies and analyses on the development of the stealth refueling aircraft NGAS, which have resulted in the recommendation to abandon the project. Specifically, it is one of the two most important programs currently in development under the institution’s responsibility, the other being the sixth-generation NGAD fighter program, which is also facing significant scrutiny due to the high costs it has incurred so far.
According to reports, these budgetary constraints would be precisely what makes the development of both programs at a steady pace unsustainable, making it necessary to evaluate the possibility of discarding one to continue with the other. The chosen program appears to be the aforementioned NGAD. It is worth remembering that both projects had a high degree of interrelation, considering that the NGAS system was initially envisioned as the future of the U.S. Air Force’s stealth refueling fleet, positioning itself as a key pillar to achieve greater operational range for future sixth-generation fighters.
Referring to these issues, Major General Joseph Kunkel, who serves as the Director of Force Design, Integration, and Wargaming for the Air Force at the Air Staff in the Pentagon, stated: “There are a lot of attack surfaces that we can target to achieve survivable aerial refueling (…) NGAS can be part of the solution, but there are other places along this chain where we can attack the adversary, and that is the focus.”
However, in the absence of an official confirmation regarding the decision on the continuity of each program (as the disclosed analyses are merely recommendations), the institution could face a significant challenge in maintaining an updated aerial refueling capability for the future. As we reported in 2023, Lockheed Martin officially announced that it would halt progress on the recapitalization program for the KC-135 aircraft fleet in order to place its bets on the NGAS platform. Meanwhile, the institution continues to incorporate Boeing’s KC-46 Pegasus systems; however, neither of these aircraft possesses the stealth capabilities that the NGAS promised.
Delving briefly into what is known about the NGAS program, it is useful to start by noting that it took its first steps in 2006 when the U.S. Air Force began searching for a replacement for its more than 400 KC-135 platforms. Initially, this was planned to unfold in a three-phase scheme, with the first two marked by the selection of the aforementioned KC-46 Pegasus system (with approximately 320 units ordered), while the third phase aimed at incorporating a stealth refueling aircraft. Initially known as the KC-Z program, it later evolved into NGAS.
The logic behind this was to have a stealth platform capable of performing such missions in high-threat scenarios, leaving KC-46 deployments for areas beyond enemy observation. Thus, a stealth aircraft was required to evade threats posed by high-level adversaries, significantly increasing its development costs compared to its predecessors. For now, one of the main alternatives considered by the USAF to address this issue would be the use of drones, with all eyes on the MQ-25 Stingray system. With this approach, the force would have a significantly cheaper platform for refueling tasks while also offering greater survivability compared to current large tanker aircraft.
Finally, in line with the need to reorganize expenditures, it is important to note that the USAF is engaged on multiple fronts to bring its future projects to fruition. Among them, the development and incorporation of its future B-21 bombers, the renewal of its Minuteman III ICBM inventory with the Sentinel ICBM variant, and the development of hypersonic weapons stand out. Additionally, the fate of the aforementioned NGAD program remains to be determined, with plans to reduce its estimated cost from $200–300 million to a capped price of $100 million, making it comparable to the cost of an F-35 fighter.
Images used for illustrative purposes.
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