To reward its support against Ukraine, Russia is reportedly outlining a potential transfer of MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters to the North Korean Air Force, which currently operates a large number of outdated aircraft from the Cold War era. The alleged deal was revealed by Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM), during his address at the 2024 Reagan National Defense Forum held in California.

It is worth noting that Pyongyang began signaling a potential deployment of its troops on Russian territory as early as October. By early November, the deployment was confirmed without doubt. Initially, a small contingent of approximately 1,500 personnel was involved, which later expanded to an estimated 10,000 soldiers. Reportedly, clashes have already occurred between these North Korean forces and Ukrainian defenders, particularly in the heavily contested Kursk region.

It should also be remembered that the North Korean Air Force already has an estimated fleet of 35 MiG-29 aircraft, although many are suspected to be in questionable operational condition. Furthermore, as previously mentioned, the force operates a wide array of outdated aircraft incapable of effectively countering their South Korean counterparts, which include F-16s, F-15Ks, and F-35s, along with the soon-to-be-integrated domestically developed KF-21 Boramae. Specifically, this includes systems like the MiG-17, MiG-19, and MiG-21, whose actual readiness is also debated among analysts.

It is also essential to consider that in a potential conflict, the North Korean Air Force would not only face South Korean aircraft but also squadrons of F-16s and A-10 Thunderbolt IIs deployed in the peninsula by the U.S. Air Force. These aircraft are set to be replaced in the near future. Additionally, the USAF has announced plans to begin introducing modern F-35 stealth fighters to its bases in Japan starting in 2026, further complicating North Korea’s strategic options.

Despite Admiral Paparo’s statements, no specifics were provided regarding the quantity, variants, or armament of the Russian aircraft to be supplied. Far from posing a genuine threat to the forces surrounding North Korea, Western experts suggest that the move is more likely a symbolic gesture to reward Kim Jong-un’s regime for deploying troops. Additionally, it could be an attempt to establish North Korea as a new market for Russia’s significantly diminished military exports since the beginning of its invasion of Ukraine.

Images used for illustrative purposes – Cover photo: Vitaly V. Kuzmin.

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