Within the framework of the hearing entitled “Part of Their World: Undersea Competition Between the United States and China,” held by naval officers and analysts before the U.S. Economic and Security Review Commission, the United States has warned that by 2035 it is projected that half of the Chinese Navy’s submarine fleet will be nuclear-powered. The development in question emerged during the opening stages of what was a broad presentation delivered by Rear Admiral Michael Brookes, who currently serves as Commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence.
Expanding on several relevant details, Rear Admiral Brookes stated that the Asian giant ranks among the world’s largest submarine operators at present, currently fielding more than 60 units. Of this total, it has been reported that six are nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN), along with two equipped with precision-guided missiles, classifying them as SSGNs, and finally six equipped with ballistic missiles, making them SSBNs. Therefore, the bulk of the fleet is still composed of conventional diesel-electric models, including examples fitted with the most modern AIP systems (the Yuan– and Song-class).
Against this backdrop, the presentation continued by stating that the Chinese Navy is immersed in a transition process aimed at drastically increasing the number of available nuclear submarines, particularly through the development of a new variant known as the Type 041 or Zhou-class; a model similar in size to a conventional submarine but offering a greater degree of autonomy. In this way, Beijing could acquire a higher-performance platform than those that currently make up most of its submarine capability, while maintaining a lower level of expenditure than that required for a large SSBN or SSGN model.
This does not mean that larger and more capable platforms will be abandoned in any way, with estimates suggesting that China seeks to keep them in service throughout the 2030s and beyond, which would require advances in sensors and weaponry. Additionally, the presentation detailed that China is interested in advancing new technologies to reduce their acoustic signature, as well as improvements in reactor design. The strategic impact of this trajectory is clear, providing the Chinese Navy with more and better long-range strike capabilities in the event of conflict.
Accompanying these expansion plans, the report presented by Rear Admiral Brookes also acknowledges that China has significantly increased its production capacity, which he expressed as follows: “China has dramatically increased its domestic submarine production capacity through major infrastructure investments at three primary shipyards, accelerating production from fewer than one nuclear submarine per year to significantly higher rates. These expansions include the construction of extensive facilities that have tripled the capacity of construction halls, enabling increased production rates of conventional submarines, while the enhanced infrastructure now allows for the construction of advanced, larger-diameter submarines at all three facilities.”
*Images used for illustrative purposes
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