In a context marked by debate over the modernization of Portuguese combat aviation, based on the necessary replacement of the F-16 Fighting Falcon of the Portuguese Air Force, the United States has indicated that it continues to promote and support the Lockheed Martin F-35 as its primary proposal. This emerges from statements made by the U.S. ambassador in Lisbon, who urged moving toward the incorporation of the fifth-generation fighter, noting that its adoption would guarantee interoperability with the main European air forces.
The U.S. ambassador in Portugal, John Arrigo, told CNN Portugal that the F-35 would allow the Portuguese Air Force (FAP) to fully integrate into the most advanced operational standards of the European Union. “The F-35 is the best fighter; it is a fifth-generation stealth fighter—it will take you to the Champions League when it comes to the EU,” Arrigo said. He also indicated that more than 900 units of the model are in service or on order in Europe and argued that, in terms of interoperability, “the F-35 is definitely the way forward,” highlighting that 25% of the aircraft is manufactured with European components.
These statements come as Portugal has not yet formally begun the selection process to replace its current F-16M Fighting Falcons. In November, the Portuguese Minister of Defense, Nuno Melo, confirmed that the process had not started, keeping political decisions regarding the future combat system open. In parallel, Arrigo indicated that he would draw on his business experience to assist Lisbon in increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, in line with NATO objectives.
From a military perspective, the Chief of Staff of the Portuguese Air Force, General Cartaxo Alves, explained at the end of 2025 that the institution had already identified the F-35 as the most suitable military solution to replace the F-16, although he emphasized that the final decision lies with political authorities. “It is the Air Force’s responsibility to determine the best military solution for a given capability. Naturally, it is then up to the political authority to make the final decision, weighing advantages, disadvantages, and risks, and deciding whether to follow that path (…) We are fully aware of the firm position adopted by the majority of countries. But we must also consider factors such as delivery schedules, both for fifth- and sixth-generation aircraft. These options are not mutually exclusive. If Portugal acts correctly, we could have fifth-generation aircraft and, subsequently, sixth-generation aircraft entering service within that timeframe,” the officer stated.
Currently, the backbone of Portuguese combat aviation is composed of approximately 27 F-16A/B Block 15 MLU aircraft, incorporated from the mid-1990s through the Peace Atlantis I and II programs. These aircraft, with over 30 years of service, operate in Squadrons 201 “Falcões” and 301 “Jaguares,” performing national airspace defense missions and deployments within NATO Air Policing operations in Eastern Europe. In this context, various manufacturers have expressed interest in the future replacement, including Airbus Defence and Space, which promotes the Eurofighter Typhoon as an alternative.
In parallel with the F-35 debate, Portugal announced its participation as an observer in one of the two European sixth-generation fighter development programs. The Minister of Defense, João Nuno Lacerda Teixeira de Melo, stated that this status will not imply costs for the country and will allow early access to technical and doctrinal advances. Currently, Europe is advancing the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), led by France, Germany, and Spain, and the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), led by the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan, initiatives that foresee new platforms entering service toward 2035 and 2040, respectively.
Decisions regarding the replacement of the F-16 are taking place in a broader context of strategic and economic relations, in which the United States has indicated it considers itself Portugal’s “best partner,” while seeking to keep potential adversaries “at a distance.” Portugal joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2018, while Chinese companies maintain significant stakes in strategic sectors of the country—a situation that also forms part of the geopolitical scenario surrounding the debate on the future of Portuguese combat aviation.
*Images used for illustrative purposes.
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