According to what has recently been disclosed by U.S. Air Force authorities, the institution is leaning toward revising its deployment strategy for its future Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missiles, considering that the original plans to use the launch facility silos currently built may not be the best option for their storage. If so, the decision would imply not only a significant challenge in carrying out the construction of new facilities, but also a considerable increase in associated costs for a program that had already far exceeded its initial budget limits.
It should be recalled in this regard that the institution had planned to carry out an ambitious renovation program for a total of 450 silos currently used for the deployment of Minuteman III missiles, but as the program progresses, they no longer appear suitable to house the future Sentinel missiles. In the words of Air Force General Thomas Bussiere: “Part of the original requirements, when this program began ten years ago, was to reuse the missile silos in the launch facilities. It was believed that would be more efficient, more cost-effective, and faster. Surprisingly, if we look at it, that may not be the solution.”
This is by no means a minor issue, considering that part of the decision made by Congress to continue with the Sentinel program despite the breach of regulations established by the Nunn-McCurdy Act must be attributed to the projected cost reductions in the event of carrying out the aforementioned silo renovation. In that regard, the U.S. Air Force had already reported unit cost increases per missile exceeding a 25% variation from the acquisition budget stipulated by law, so adding the necessary investment for new silos could pose a major risk to the continuity of the program.
Expanding on the details of the program, specialized media report that the U.S. Air Force’s intent was to acquire a total of 634 Sentinel missiles, to which another 25 units must be added for testing purposes. Of this number, it is estimated that around 400 units would be deployed at various points across the country, mainly within what is known as the Great Plains—a region in the central continental U.S. stretching from Colorado to North Dakota.
On the other hand, summarizing in simple terms the reason behind the aforementioned cost increase, General Bussiere explained that the deployment of the Sentinel systems consists of four parts: the facilities, the missile, the support equipment, and the warheads with which they will be equipped. The problems are centered on the first of these, accounting for much of the estimated 81% cost overrun compared to the program’s projected values; which, according to estimates, adds to the nuclear modernization efforts that will cost about $946 billion to complete. In short, with the various review processes described, the force will not be able to meet the schedule set out in its plans, which had set the year 2029 as the point at which initial operational capability should be achieved.
Finally, it should be mentioned that while these issues are resolved, the U.S. will have to continue investing significant resources in its current Minuteman III missiles in order to sustain its nuclear deterrence capabilities. On this matter, General Bussiere stated: “As we transition from the Minuteman III to the Sentinel (…) we must maintain a minimum number of intercontinental ballistic missiles on alert for the entire country. And it will be a harmonious combination of operations, maintenance, acquisition, and, you know, a group of partners that are part of this program to make sure everything goes well.”
Images used for illustrative purposes.
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